China's Mobile Telecom Services Industry Overview

1.China’smobiletelecomservicemarketishugeandfastgrowingrepresentingUS$21billionmarketsizein2001andUS$38billionin2005.Thismarketissupportedbytheworld’slargestsubscriberbaseat145millionalreadycomprising15%oftheworld’stotalin2001andgrowingtopotentially218millioninalowcaseor300millioninahighcaseby2005

2.Thecompetitivelandscapeformobileserviceshasevolvedfromasingleregulatorandoperatortotoday’sduopolyofChinaUnicomandChinaMobilebothofwhomareunassociatedwiththeMinistryofInformationIndustries.AsecondbreakupofChinaTelecomisexpectedtoformtwolargetelecomoperatorsChinaTelecomandChinaNetcomGroupwhoarelikelytoreceivemobilelicenses.AfifthtelecomoperatorChinaRailcomalsohasthepotentialofreceivingathirdgenerationlicenseandbuildingamobilebusiness.FornowChinaMobiledominatesthemarketwith82%valueshareand72%subscribershareandownsmuchofthehighvalueuserbase.Howeverchurnisalreadyhighandisexpectedtoincreasewithcontinuingpricingpressuresandincreasedcompetition.

3.WirelessdataservicesareexpectedtogrowquicklyinChinatoamarketofpotentiallyoverUS$4billionby2005usedby43%ofallmobileusers.Interestfromconsumersurveyshavebeenhighandoperatorsandotherplayersareactivelybuildingservicesinthemarket.WhileearlyWAPserviceshavefailedtocatchonSMShasgrownexponentiallywithupto20billionSMSmessagesin2001.Theearlyadopterswillbemobileprofessionalsandmodernyouthwhowillrequireservicesanddevicestailoredtotheirneeds.

4.RegulatorychangesloomparticularlywiththeaccessionofChinatotheWTO.WhileforeignerswillbeunlikelytosetupMVNOsWTOwillallowgreaterparticipationofforeignersinbasicandvalueaddedservicesalthoughgeographiclimitationswillexistthrough2004andChineseplayerswillberequiredtoownatleast50%oftelecomserviceventures(51%forbasicservices).RegulatoryrisksremainwithnomeanstoappealregulatordecisionsunclearinterpretationofregulationincludingWTOcommitmentsandthegovernment’strackrecordofintransparentandunpredictabledecisionmaking.(SeeseparateregulatoryPDfordetails)



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